Weekly Economic Analysis: 6 – 10 October 2025

The second week of October delivered a mix of cautious optimism and persistent uncertainty as investors tracked the U.S. shutdown, cooling labor indicators, and Eurozone growth headwinds. Key data across major economies offered clues on inflation trajectories and central bank bias heading into Q4.

Monday, 6 October

Eurozone – Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct)

Time: 04:30 GMT+4

Investor morale weakened for the second consecutive month to -18.6 from -16.2, reflecting concerns over stagnant growth.

Below -18.0: EUR/USD may test 1.0870
Above -15.0: Limited rebound toward 1.0940

Australia – Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Oct)

Time: 19:30 GMT+4

Confidence rose 1.8% MoM, hinting at improved household outlook following RBA’s rate pause.

Strong reading >2%: AUD/USD may approach 0.6670
Negative print: AUD risks sliding back to 0.6580

Tuesday, 7 October

U.S. – Trade Balance (Aug)

Time: 08:30 GMT+4

The U.S. deficit widened to $69.4B, the largest in three months, as exports slipped on global demand weakness.

Wider than $70B: DXY pressure; EUR/USD may rise toward 1.0960
Below $68B: Dollar stabilizes near 98.30

Canada – Ivey PMI (Sep)

Time: 10:00 GMT+4

Business sentiment slowed sharply to 50.8 from 53.5, pointing to easing momentum across services and manufacturing.

Below 50.0: USD/CAD may extend to 1.3550
Above 53.0: CAD recovery possible toward 1.3450

U.S. – Consumer Credit (Aug)

Time: 15:00 GMT+4

Borrowing rose $10.7B, signaling restrained consumer leverage despite moderate spending.

> $15B: USD support near 98.40
< $10B: DXY softens: gold may gain above $3680

Wednesday, 8 October

Germany – Industrial Production YoY (Aug)

Time: 02:00 GMT+4

Output contracted 0.4%, confirming continued manufacturing drag amid energy cost stabilization.

Below -0.5%: EUR weakness; EUR/USD may drop to 1.0870
Above 0.0%: Euro steadies near 1.0960

Thursday, 9 October

New Zealand – Business NZ PMI (Sep)

Time: 17:30 GMT+4

PMI fell to 49.3, returning below expansion territory after modest recovery in August.

Below 49.0: NZD/USD may slip to 0.5790
Above 50.0: Kiwi extends rebound toward 0.5850

Japan – Producer Price Index (Sep)

Time: 19:50 GMT+4

Prices rose 2.1% YoY, slightly above forecast, underscoring persistent cost pressures.

>2.2%: USD/JPY could test 149.50
<2.0%: Yen strengthens; 148.00 retest likely

U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ended Oct 4)

Time: 16:30 GMT+4

Data release delayed amid federal shutdown; traders monitored secondary labor metrics for cues on employment softening.

China – IPSOS PCSI (Oct)

Time: 22:00 GMT+4

Consumer confidence improved marginally, reflecting stabilization in domestic sentiment.

Higher confidence: CNH steadies; USD/CNH below 7.26
Weaker print: CNH pressure; industrial metals soften

Friday, 10 October

U.S. – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prel Oct)

Time: 10:30 GMT+4

Confidence dipped to 72.8 from 76.2, signaling household caution under fiscal uncertainty.

Below 73.0: DXY dips below 98.00; gold may hold $3,680
Above 75.0: USD steadies; risk assets rebound

Canada – Employment Report (Sep)

Time: 08:30 GMT+4

Job creation slowed to +7K, unemployment rate rose to 6.4% — highlighting cooling labor conditions.

Weak data: USD/CAD may climb to 1.3550
Strong surprise >25K: CAD recovery toward 1.3450

Russia – CPI YoY (Sep)

Time: 18:31 GMT+4

Inflation accelerated to 6.2%, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will stay cautious on easing.

Above 6.0%: RUB stabilizes near 93.50
Below 5.8%: Ruble weakness resumes

Outlook and Takeaways

The week’s data reaffirmed mixed but pivotal trends across global markets:

U.S. Dollar (DXY): Held near 98.00 as sentiment swung between risk-on rallies and political caution.
Euro (EUR): Weighed by weak retail and industrial data; ECB’s cautious tone keeps rallies limited below 1.10.
Japanese Yen (JPY): Range-bound pending clarity on Japan’s leadership vote; resistance remains 149.50, support 148.00.
Commodities: Gold steadied above $3,680/oz, silver near $28.50, both supported by softer dollar tone.
Risk Currencies (AUD/NZD): Found footing on improved regional data; key ranges AUD/USD 0.6580–0.6670, NZD/USD 0.5790–0.5850.
CAD: Labor softness weighed; pair remains capped below 1.3550.
CNY & RUB: Diverging trends—China’s sentiment recovery contrasts Russia’s inflation uptick.

FX Levels to Watch

EUR/USD: 1.0870 – 1.0960
USD/JPY: 148.00 – 149.50
AUD/USD: 0.6580 – 0.6670
NZD/USD: 0.5790 – 0.5850
USD/CAD: 1.3400 – 1.3550
USD/CHF: 0.8970 – 0.9010

With U.S. data delays and upcoming CPI and earnings season ahead, traders should brace for volatility in risk assets, commodities, and currency pairs as the focus shifts to inflation and fiscal clarity into mid-October.