Weekly Economic Outlook: 29 September – 3 October 2025

The final week of September and the start of October brings a heavy mix of central bank updates, inflation prints, and U.S. labor market data. Traders should be prepared for heightened volatility across AUD, EUR, GBP, and USD pairs, with the RBA rate decision and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) standing out as key event risks.

Monday, 29 September

UK – BoE Consumer Credit (Aug)

Time: 04:30 GMT+4

Recent print: £1.4B. A stronger-than-expected figure signals robust household borrowing, boosting GBP.

£1.5B: GBP/USD could test 1.2550
<£1.0B: Sterling may weaken toward 1.2400

Eurozone – Business & Consumer Confidence (Sep)

Time: 05:00 GMT+4

Weak sentiment has pressured EUR recently. Any recovery would support euro stability.

Above 95.0: EUR/USD may rise toward 1.1700
Below 93.0: Euro risks slipping toward 1.1580

China – Caixin Services PMI (Sep)

Time: 21:45 GMT+4

Last at 51.6. A rebound signals resilience in services, supporting CNH and AUD.

52.0: USD/CNH may dip to 7.18; AUD/USD can retest 0.6600
<50.0: Risk aversion lifts USD; AUD/USD slides toward 0.6450

Tuesday, 30 September

Australia – RBA Rate Decision (Sep)

Time: 00:30 GMT+4

The RBA is expected to hold at 4.35%. Focus will be on forward guidance.

Hawkish tone: AUD/USD may climb toward 0.6650
Dovish tone: AUD/USD risks drop below 0.6400

UK – GDP & Business Investment (Q2 YoY)

Time: 02:00 GMT+4

Q1 GDP was 0.6%. Weakness would reinforce a dovish BoE outlook.

GDP >0.7%: GBP/USD targets 1.2600
GDP <0.4%: Pound vulnerable near 1.2350

Wednesday, 1 October

Eurozone – CPI YoY (Sep, Flash)

Time: 05:00 GMT+4

August stood at 2.3%. Markets watch for stickiness.

2.4%: EUR/USD may push toward 1.1800
<2.1%: Euro could slide back to 1.1550

US – ADP Employment Change (Sep)

Time: 08:15 GMT+4

Last print: +164K. Seen as a prelude to NFP.

190K: USD may firm, DXY eyes 102.50
<140K: USD softens, EUR/USD steadies above 1.1700

US – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep, Final)

Time: 09:45 GMT+4

Prior: 51.2. Signals momentum in industrial activity.

52.0: USD strengthens, Gold may ease under $2,360
<50.0: Growth fears resurface; XAU/USD climbs above $2,400

Thursday, 2 October

Switzerland – CPI YoY (Sep)

Time: 02:30 GMT+4

August was 1.4%. A sharp drop would weigh on CHF.

1.5%: CHF gains; USD/CHF may fall to 0.8750
<1.2%: Dovish SNB bets grow; USD/CHF pushes 0.8950

Japan – Unemployment Rate (Aug)

Time: 19:30 GMT+4

Rate at 2.6%. Any uptick may pressure JPY modestly.

2.8%: USD/JPY may retest 152.00
<2.5%: Yen steadies, pair dips toward 148.00

US – Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 27 Sep)

Time: 09:30 GMT+4

Last at 220K.

240K: USD softens; EUR/USD climbs toward 1.1750
<210K: Dollar gains; GBP/USD risks 1.2400

US – EIA Natural Gas Storage

Time: 11:30 GMT+4

Stock draws impact energy sentiment and EUR outlook.

Big draw: Bullish energy; EUR resilience
Build: Bearish commodities; USD firm

Friday, 3 October

US – Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)

Time: 08:30 GMT+4

August posted +163K, unemployment 4.2%. This remains the week’s key event.

200K, jobless <4.1%: USD surges, EUR/USD risks 1.1550
<140K, jobless >4.3%: USD weakens, Gold lifts above $2,420

US – S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep, Final)

Time: 09:45 GMT+4

Provides growth confirmation post-NFP.

Above 52.0: Adds to USD strength
Below 50.0: Risk-off tilt supports JPY, CHF

FX Levels to Watch

EUR/USD: 1.1500–1.1800
GBP/USD: 1.2350–1.2600
AUD/USD: 0.6400–0.6650
USD/JPY: 148.00–152.00
USD/CHF: 0.8700–0.8950
XAU/USD: 2,360–2,420

Outlook and Takeaways

This week offers a powerful mix of central bank direction, inflation signals, and the all-important U.S. labor report. Central banks in focus: RBA’s tone could swing AUD sharply. Inflation watch: Eurozone and Swiss CPI will guide ECB/SNB expectations. U.S. jobs data: ADP and Jobless Claims set the stage for NFP, which will drive USD, yields, and global risk sentiment. Traders should size positions cautiously ahead of Tuesday’s RBA and Friday’s NFP. Short-term momentum will be data-driven, but broader themes—policy divergence, energy sentiment, and labor trends—will dominate positioning.